IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon For India, June to Get Warmer

The southwest monsoon will advance into the southern parts of peninsular India including many parts of Kerala and some northeastern states in a week, the IMD said.

India will witness a below normal southwest monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday (May 29). This will be 10% below the average rainfall that the monsoon normally brings, and will amount to around 78 cm (versus 87 cm in a normal year).

This is lower than the estimate that the IMD had released earlier in May. At its press conference in New Delhi on Friday, the IMD also announced that June will get hotter than normal, and that many parts of India including the north and northwest could witness heatwaves. These regions are already experiencing a heatwave that has seen daytime temperatures reach 48°C, and above-normal nighttime temperatures.

Below-normal monsoon
While the southwest monsoon is enroute to the mainland, we can only expect a below-normal monsoon this year, the IMD said in a press conference in New Delhi on Friday.

The southwest monsoon, as of May 28, has advanced into many parts of south and east-central Bay of Bengal, and will further advance into the Arabian Sea. It will advance into the southern parts of peninsular India including many parts of Kerala and some northeastern states in a week, the IMD said.

“The monsoon has not been delayed … Yes we had predicted May 26, but it will hit some parts of southern Kerala within the next week,” said M. Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, at the press conference. He added that the monsoon usually hits mainland India on June 1, give or take seven days.

However, rainfall during the monsoon season (from June to September) this year will be below normal, at only 90% of the long period average (LPA), the IMD announced. LPA, a yardstick used to compare rainfall levels to, is the average rainfall across India from 1971 to 2020. It is quantified at 87 cm. This means that the estimated monsoon rainfall will be around 78.3 cm this year. This is lower than the estimate that the IMD had released earlier in May.

“Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average. Earlier we had said it would be 92%, but now it has been reduced to 90% … rainfall will be below normal across the country as a whole,” said M. Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, at the press conference.

Ravichandran added that southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal over northeast India (94-106% of the LPA), below normal over central and south peninsular India (less than 94% of the LPA); while in northwest India it will be less than 92% of the LPA. The monsoon core zone – an area which consists of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country – is most likely to witness below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of the LPA).

In June, most of the country will witness below normal rainfall, at less than 92% of the LPA, while May witnessed 4% above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, the IMD said.

A hotter June and an incoming El Niño
The month of June will witness high daytime temperatures, and heatwave days will also occur, the IMD said.

Temperatures will be “maximum” in most places across India, and it will be “more than normal”, said Ravichandran. In June, above-normal heatwave days will develop in many places in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, as well as in some pockets of Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra and Telangana, he added.

“Because of the lesser rainfall, we expect that both daytime and nighttime temperatures will be higher across many parts of India,” said Mohapatra.

In some areas such as north and northwest India, and some parts of central India, both day and night time temperatures are likely to be above normal. In the plains of northwest India – Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, northwest Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi – heatwaves will last up to three days. This year, many of these areas may also witness two more additional days of heatwaves, he said.

Above-normal heatwave days are expected over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, in addition to isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

The IMD also announced that El Niño conditions are likely to develop very soon.

The El Niño is one of the three phases of a complex climate pattern called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is caused by fluctuating sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean combined with atmospheric changes. An El Niño occurs when the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up, and is associated with weak monsoons and reduced rainfall in many regions, including most of south Asia.

Per the IMD on Friday, ENSO neutral conditions will occur in India till June-July. The El Niño will likely begin after that. By August, a moderate to strong El Niño will be in place, the IMD said.

The IMD’s monsoon forecast indicates a higher impact of the El Niño, said climate scientist Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at the University of Maryland and visiting professor at IIT Kanpur.

Models do not predict “a pretty picture”, and we can expect a patchy distribution of rainfall, he said. Longer break-monsoon conditions – temporary pauses or ‘breaks’ in the monsoon – can also trigger humid heatwaves across parts of northwest India in the coming months if the monsoon does not cover India on time, Murtugudde added.

“However, the number is not important, but the distribution of rainfall is. Models are not predicting a pretty picture, and we can expect a patchy distribution. There will be more numbers as well as longer break-monsoon conditions,” Murtugudde said in a statement. “This can also trigger humid heatwaves across parts of northwest India in the coming months if the monsoon does not cover India on time.”

Pakistan heatwaves peak in July, and if by that time the monsoon doesn’t reach parts of northwest India, hot winds from Pakistan along with increased moisture influx from the Arabian Sea would lead to humid heatwaves or likely conditions across northwest India, Murtugudde warned: “Thus, we should prepare ourselves depending on the shorter period of the forecast for agricultural activities, along with the persisting geopolitical situation.”

He also cautioned that there are chances that 2026 will make it to the list of record-warming years, with 2027 surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record, because the El Niño adds to global warming temporarily by increasing ocean temperatures for a short period.

Impact on agriculture, water security
The El Niño prediction, along with the present geopolitical situation, could be a “deadly combination” for India and “especially agriculture”, said food policy analyst Devinder Sharma in a statement.

“With the ongoing fertiliser crunch, along with rising inflation, the world is now shifting towards agroecology, and this is the only way to deal with these impacts of climate change,” Sharma said, adding that it might be important to explore ways to shift from chemical farming because India cannot continue to live under the shadow of fertiliser shortage.

A below-normal monsoon as the IMD predicts this year will also threaten India’s water security, said Anjal Prakash, professor, public policy at FLAME University, Pune. Prakash, who also contributes to reports compiled by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that this would limit groundwater recharge, depress reservoir levels critical for drinking water and irrigation, and amplify the risk of urban water crises, especially in cities already grappling with scarcity.

“With 52% of India’s net cultivated area rain-fed and 40% of food production dependent on monsoon rains, this shortfall will strain both rural livelihoods and national food security, while also reducing hydropower generation and intensifying competition for water across sectors,” he said.

Addressing a below‐normal monsoon requires integrated water management and immediate policy action, Prakash said, including scaling up rainwater harvesting and aquifer recharge through community ponds, recharge wells and urban green infrastructure to rebuild groundwater. He also pointed out that India would need to strengthen crop insurance and income support for smallholders to absorb shocks.

This article has valuable insights from Prof. Anjal Prakash, Faculty of Public Policy, FLAME University.