From Balochistan to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan’s on the boil

Baluch Liberation Army and TTP strike at will. The scale of violence in the country keeps rising amidst insurgencies, a civilian government that lacks popular legitimacy and economic woes. Pakistan is struggling to stay afloat in a sea of troubles

The Baluch Liberation Army’s (BLA) Operation Herof has added another layer to Pakistan’s complex security challenges. While the BLA has targeted Pakistani forces in the past, the recent attacks should ring alarm bells. The scale of the attacks, the ease with which BLA fighters operated and the warm public support they received suggests that the insurgency has grown in strength.

This also comes at a time when the Pakistani Army is locked in a fierce battle with the TTP (Tehrik-E Taliban Pakistan) in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. This two-front battle, comes at a time when Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership is at their most vulnerable.

Baloch insurgency is growing in strength
The Pakistan Government has repeatedly argued that the security situation in Balochistan is under their control. However, the success of BLA’s Operation Herof paints a different picture. Three observations regarding the recent attacks need to be taken note of.

Firstly, reports suggest that when the BLA moved into important urban centres like Quetta, they were met with significant public support. If these reports are indeed true, this suggests a strong undercurrent of support for the BLA’s insurgency.

Secondly, the BLA has indicated that two of the suicide attackers were young women. The active participation of women in the insurgency once again highlights the deep-rooted support base the BLA has built.

Thirdly, the ease with which the BLA fighters moved into Quetta should alarm the Pakistani government. During the initial few hours of the operation, the BLA faced very limited resistance. It took the Pakistani security forces nearly 48 hours to push the BLA out.

All this indicates that the Baloch insurgency is gaining momentum. Pakistani security forces are clearly underprepared and ill equipped to handle the BLA’s threat. This is a fact, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif himself admitted. He in no uncertain terms stated that the BLA were better equipped than the Pakistani forces.

The attacks also highlight that the Baloch insurgency is not a mere fringe movement. There is genuine public support for the BLA’s cause amongst the Baloch population.

Continued Troubles in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
At the same time, Pakistan is also locked in a battle against the TTP in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Over the last few months, the TTP has carried out multiple ambushes and strikes targeting Pakistani security forces. This forced authorities to do a comprehensive review of the security situation in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. These troubles come less than a year after the Pakistani forces engaged in a direct confrontation with the Afghan Taliban along the international border.

The deteriorating relations with the Afghan Taliban have put Pakistan on the backfoot. When the Taliban regime returned to Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan had viewed this as a strategic victory. It had hoped that this would help reign in the TTP and ease the pressure along its Western borders. Four years later, the TTP has emerged stronger, with the Afghan Taliban unwilling to reign them in. The Afghan Taliban have refused to recognize the existing international border along the Durand Line. To make matters worse, the Taliban has fostered close ties with India.

Complex web of security challenges
The past 12 months have exposed Pakistan’s complex internal and external security challenges. Insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the heavy bruising received during Operation Sindhoor and deteriorating ties with the Taliban have come at the worst possible time for Pakistan.

Internally, the civilian and military leadership are at their most vulnerable situation. The strong public legitimacy the military once enjoyed helped it gain de-facto control over the civilian leadership. Today, with the incarceration of Imran Khan, that legitimacy is quickly eroding. Similarly, the current civilian government under Shahbaz Sharif does not enjoy widespread public support. The public legitimacy of both the civilian and military leadership is at its weakest.

Externally, Pakistan’s ‘all weather’ ally China appears to be growing impatient with its failure to protect Chinese assets along the CPEC. The Chinese have already pulled out all their personnel from Pakistan. At the same time, the signing of the India-US trade deal appears to have negated some of the inroads Pakistan had made with the US administration. Overall, this underscores the internal and external uncertainties Pakistan currently faces.

A year that may become a watershed in Pakistan’s history
The year 2026 is going to be very challenging for Pakistan. It is facing major internal security challenges in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, at a time when the civilian and military establishment appear to be at their weakest. Navigating this phase would require careful maneuvering. Pakistan’s track record of handling such situations in the past does not evoke much confidence.

Authors: Prof. Sanjal Sashtri, Faculty of International Studies, FLAME University.