Pakistan is suffering from a terminal illness. The illness has its origins at its very inception. It took the form of an identity crisis. The Radcliffe line had partitioned the subcontinent. The manner in which the line was drawn had neither rhyme nor reason, logic, or rationality, and could be justifiably questioned on several grounds. Yet for the better or for the worse, it was accepted, and one heart was split into two. It has now been 75 years since Pakistan declared itself an independent state. What has been the result?

Current state of Pakistan

In 2023, Pakistan finds itself challenged on nearly all fronts. The Pakistani rupee has broken the 300 rupee barrier to the US dollar. Internal and external debt has soared, its government’s internal debt reached PKR 4 trillion in January this year, and the country’s external public debt stands at 86.6 billion USD. The nation is unable to feed itself, industrial growth has plummeted, there are no medicines; healthcare systems have all but broken down, the cost of living has soared, inflation is eating into the vitals of the country, municipal services are collapsing, there is unrest in almost all the provinces, and apart from China, the country is at odds with nearly all its neighbors. Economic conditions are better in neighboring Afghanistan and Bangladesh, formally known as East Pakistan. 

The country is in a mess, its political leadership is utterly clueless about how to engage the country’s challenges, and the government is battling a lack of ideas. The situation is grim and intimidating. It is now reported that a majority of the working population is set on leaving the country in search of better opportunities abroad. The Pakistani passport arouses mistrust and suspicion almost everywhere in the world. The physical infrastructure of the country is severely outmoded. The public education standard is generally poor, and health services are woefully inadequate. The country is heavily dependent on imports, while exports have registered a steep decline.

Five major segments that rule Pakistan

Pakistan is ruled by five major segments, of which the military occupies the first place. The four other segments include the political elite, or government, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, and the clergy. Pakistan became a theocratic state by adopting Islam as its official ideology under President Zia-ul-Haq. Since then, its crisis of identity has worsened. The country lacks a national vision statement. Instead of focusing on economic and social development, and defining a global mission for itself in world affairs, it has instead focused on religion. It likes to portray itself as the guardian of the Islamic world, and despite the odds, it embarked on a nuclear program that was prompted by the desire to become the first Islamic country to possess a nuclear bomb.

A huge proportion of its national income goes into the preservation of its military structures. The country is effectively ruled, managed, and governed by the military. The military intervenes in all aspects of civil society, including the economy, the bureaucracy, and the judiciary. The five segments, including the military, government, judiciary, bureaucracy, and clergy, are inextricably linked by a ubiquitous network of corruption that lubricates the wheels of virtually all aspects of Pakistani life. A lethal combination of poor investment in public instruction and higher education, infrastructural growth, industrial development, IT services, irrigation, and water management, combined with little or no incentives to attract foreign investment and stimulate exports, has contributed to Pakistan defaulting on its debt repayments. According to the latest figures, inflation peaked at 36.4% in April of this year. Deserted by even its traditional friends, with the exception of China, the country is on the brink of collapse.

Separatist movements have grown in scale and intensity almost all over Pakistan. The people of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), including Gilgit-Baltistan, have been vocal in their demands to merge with the Indian Union. This is in part due to the fact that they have historically considered themselves to be part of India, and in part due to what might be called the demonstration effect of soaring prices and food shortages on one side of the border standing in sharp contrast to unhindered supply of food, fruits, and vegetables at affordable prices on the other side of the border. It might be noted in passing that the pace of infrastructural development, foreign investment, and the pronounced emphasis on developing tourism in Jammu and Kashmir have only contributed to heightening the consequences of this demonstration effect in the public imagination in both countries.

A massive migration crisis on the way

The current situation in Pakistan displays all the classical symptoms of what can turn out to be a massive migration crisis very similar to what was witnessed in East Pakistan prior to the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Levels of education in Pakistan are, in general, poor. The state of higher education is close to being dismal. Employment opportunities, career progression, skill development, vocational guidance, and creating an ecosystem conducive to the nurturing of creativity and entrepreneurship are conspicuously lacking in Pakistani society.

The country prides itself on ascribing importance to all the wrong priorities stemming from its adherence to an interpretation of Islam that is astonishingly primitive, harsh, and not at all in consonance with the demands of a modern industrialized economy. Instead of focusing on economic development, the country is obsessed with religious extremism, intolerance, pathological hatred for India, and open persecution of minorities. Respect for diversity and inclusion is considered sacrilegious by the country’s clergy, and hatred for India is consciously and deliberately cultivated, taught, and firmly embedded in the country’s psyche. The population is fed with false narratives that find social legitimacy and acceptance with remarkable felicity and ease.

Implications for India

India has every reason to be on high alert as it engages in what could be a major wave of migration from Pakistan in the next few years. There is little doubt among multilateral institutions and foreign investors that the future prospects of growth in Pakistan are indeed very bleak. The country is on the boil. Hunger, starvation, water shortages, and the breakdown of municipal services, coupled with soaring inflation, food shortages, and a lack of employment opportunities, are bound to result in large sections of the working population gravitating to leave Pakistan for India. It is an explosive cocktail. This has worrisome implications for national security. The Government of India will have to devise a plan to protect itself in the event of such a contingency to ensure that migration does not spill over our borders, creating law and order and security challenges. For example, 7,65,000 Pakistani youths migrated abroad in 2022.

Specifically, the government will have to prepare for the eventual merger of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, including Gilgit-Baltistan, in a manner where citizenship rights are accorded only to residents of these regions. There is a widespread belief in India that an unstable Pakistan is a threat to India. This is not necessarily true. Pakistan has never been associated with stability. India has always been the focal point of its existence. The Pakistanis will have to set their house in order by making themselves responsible and accountable to their people, while India will have to do what it is about. Secondly, India will have to strengthen border controls and enforce strict entry barriers for people wanting to migrate to India. Thirdly, there are grave security implications that arise in this context. Terrorist outfits from Pakistan have been active in this region, not to mention the Pakistani army, which has a local presence in the region. This operation has to be meticulously planned and executed with telling effect. 

In Pakistan, we are dealing with a state that has failed on almost all fundamental fronts. As a country, it has become accustomed to being bailed out because there is a widespread belief in the Pakistani elite that the world cannot afford to ignore Pakistan, despite the fact that this perception is not firmly grounded in reality. The conviction that it holds true is universally shared in Pakistan. The country has traditionally suffered from a pathological inability to confront the truth. India will have to ensure that her interests are protected when Pakistan begins to wake up to its failures and undergoes a catharsis before articulating its national priorities. Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are altogether remote and bleak.

This article has been authored by Prof. Narayanswamy, Distinguished Professor of Social Sciences, FLAME University.