BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//jEvents 2.0 for Joomla//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH BEGIN:VEVENT UID:8975b3435232a791d70c86bc8ee8696b CATEGORIES:Lecture / Reading / Talk CREATED:20211120T121115 SUMMARY:‘Voting for the Underdog or Jumping on the Bandwagon? Evidence from India’s Exit Poll Ban’ - A talk by Dr. Somdeep Chatterjee DESCRIPTION:DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS SEMINAR SERIES (2018-19)\nDr. Somdeep Chatterjee, A ssistant Professor at the Indian Institute of Management in Lucknow, India, is going to deliver a talk on\n‘Voting for the Underdog or Jumping on the Bandwagon? Evidence from India’s Exit Poll Ban’\nDr. Somdeep Chatterjee wor ks as an Assistant Professor at IIM Lucknow.He mainly works in the domain o f empirical microeconomics. Broadly, his research interests are in the fiel ds of development economics, economics of labor and education, political ec onomy and behavioral economics. After completing his MA Economics from Java dpur University, Kolkata he moved to University of Houston to complete his PhD. Prior to joining IIM Lucknow, he was an Assistant Professor of Economi cs at FLAME University, Pune.  He has published several articles and resear ch papers in journals like , BE journal of Economic Analysis and Policy , I ZA Journal of Labour and Development, Economics, Bulletin of Economic Resea rch among others. He is also  designated as Fellow of the Global Labor Orga nization (GLO Fellow), Maastricht. \nAbstract\nExit poll surveys during ele ctions are conducted to predict the outcome of the actual elections. Howeve r, such polls have historically been controversial, particularly for multi- phase elections, as they could potentially influence the behavior of voters in the latter rounds of voting. If subsequent voters are likelier to vote for the predicted frontrunner, it is known as the bandwagon voting phenomen on whereas if they vote for the predicted trailing candidate, the phenomeno n is known as underdog voting. To avoid such issues, in 2009 the election a dministration in the world’s largest democracy (India) had introduced a bla nket ban on exit polls being published in the media until all rounds of an election are completed. Exploiting the potentially exogenous timing of this reform and using administrative data to compare states which went to elect ions before and after this ban, we estimate that this reform led to an incr ease in voter turnout and winning margins. We also find that vote share inc reases for the winner and decreases for others, suggesting evidence of unde rdog voting behavior among the Indian electorate. Further, we find that the ban leads to more candidates contesting elections and fewer withdrawals su ggesting that, in the counterfactual with exit polls, candidates may believ e that voters would engage in bandwagon voting.\n X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS SEMINAR SERIES (2018-19)

Dr. Somdeep Chatterjee, Assistant Professor at the Indian Instit ute of Management in Lucknow, India, is going to deliver a talk on

‘Voting for the Underdog or Jumping on the Bandwagon? Evidence from India’s Exit Poll Ban’

Dr. Somdeep Chatterjee works as an Assistant Profess or at IIM Lucknow.He mainly works in the domain of empirical microeconomics . Broadly, his research interests are in the fields of development economic s, economics of labor and education, political economy and behavioral econo mics. After completing his MA Economics from Javadpur University, Kolkata h e moved to University of Houston to complete his PhD. Prior to joining IIM Lucknow, he was an Assistant Professor of Economics at FLAME University, Pu ne.  He has published several articles and research papers in journals like  , BE journal of Economic Analysis and Policy , IZA Journal of Labour and D evelopment, Economics, Bulletin of Economic Research among others. He is al so  designated as Fellow of the Global Labor Organization (GLO Fellow), Maa stricht. 

Abstract

Exit poll surveys during elections are conducted t o predict the outcome of the actual elections. However, such polls have his torically been controversial, particularly for multi-phase elections, as th ey could potentially influence the behavior of voters in the latter rounds of voting. If subsequent voters are likelier to vote for the predicted fron trunner, it is known as the bandwagon voting phenomenon whereas if they vot e for the predicted trailing candidate, the phenomenon is known as underdog voting. To avoid such issues, in 2009 the election administration in the w orld’s largest democracy (India) had introduced a blanket ban on exit polls being published in the media until all rounds of an election are completed . Exploiting the potentially exogenous timing of this reform and using admi nistrative data to compare states which went to elections before and after this ban, we estimate that this reform led to an increase in voter turnout and winning margins. We also find that vote share increases for the winner and decreases for others, suggesting evidence of underdog voting behavior a mong the Indian electorate. Further, we find that the ban leads to more can didates contesting elections and fewer withdrawals suggesting that, in the counterfactual with exit polls, candidates may believe that voters would en gage in bandwagon voting.

DTSTAMP:20260519T132241 DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20190118T151000 DTEND;TZID=Asia/Kolkata:20190118T164000 SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR